# Winter Heating Costs 2026–27: EIA Expects Electric-Heated Homes to Pay 4% More

> EIA's Winter Fuels Outlook forecasts $1,196 in November-to-March electricity spending for homes that heat with electricity, up 4%. Natural gas homes are forecast to pay 9% less, and heating oil homes 21% more.

- URL: https://solarexaminer.com/posts/winter-heating-costs-2026-27/
- Site: Solar Examiner (https://solarexaminer.com/)
- Category: News
- Published: 2026-10-08
- Last verified: 2026-10-08
- Author: Tehseen Arbab

## Key takeaways

- EIA forecasts that homes heating mainly with electricity will spend an average of $1,196 on electricity from November 2026 through March 2027, 4% more than last winter.
- The increase comes from a forecast 3% rise in residential electricity prices (to 18.23¢/kWh on average) and about 1% more consumption.
- Homes heating with natural gas are forecast to spend 9% less ($640), propane homes 3% less ($1,246), and heating oil homes 21% more ($2,115).
- The West has the largest forecast increase for electric-heated homes (+9%) because EIA assumes a much colder winter there. The Northeast is forecast to fall 3%.



The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) published its Winter Fuels Outlook on October 6, 2026, alongside its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. For homes that heat mainly with electricity, it forecasts higher bills this winter. For homes that heat with natural gas or propane, it forecasts lower ones.

"Winter" here means November through March.

## The Forecast at a Glance

| Main heating fuel | Avg. spending, Nov. 2026–Mar. 2027 | Change from last winter | Main reason |
|---|---|---|---|
| Electricity | $1,196 | +4% | Prices up 3%, use up 1% |
| Natural gas | $640 | −9% | Lower prices |
| Propane | $1,246 | −3% | Lower prices |
| Heating oil | $2,115 | +21% | Prices up 34% |

All figures are EIA's base-case forecasts in nominal dollars. EIA assumes inflation of about 2% this winter, so an increase smaller than 2% is a decline after inflation.

## Electric-Heated Homes, by Region

| Region | Spending | Change | Avg. price | Consumption |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northeast | $1,637 | −3% | 26.19¢/kWh (+4%) | 6,252 kWh (−6%) |
| Midwest | $1,380 | +3% | 16.87¢/kWh (+4%) | 8,178 kWh (−1%) |
| South | $1,079 | +3% | 15.75¢/kWh (+4%) | 6,849 kWh (0%) |
| West | $1,151 | +9% | 20.47¢/kWh (+1%) | 5,624 kWh (+9%) |
| **U.S. average** | **$1,196** | **+4%** | **18.23¢/kWh (+3%)** | **6,562 kWh (+1%)** |

**Check:** spending ≈ consumption × price. For the U.S. average, 6,562 kWh × 18.23¢ = $1,196.25.

Two regions show how weather and price pull against each other:

- **Northeast:** prices are forecast up 4%, but EIA assumes a winter 12% warmer than last year, measured in heating degree days. Lower consumption more than offsets the price increase, so spending falls 3%.
- **West:** prices rise only 1%, but EIA assumes a winter 25% colder than last year's unusually warm one. Consumption rises 9%, and so does spending.

## What "Spending" Covers

EIA's electricity figures cover all electricity used in those homes during November to March, not only heating. In the South especially, EIA notes that space heating is a smaller share of winter electricity use in electric-heated homes than it is for homes heated with other fuels.

The monthly peak is January: 1,494 kWh and $270 for the average U.S. electric-heated home.

## Weather Is the Big Unknown

EIA uses a 30-year trend to set its weather assumptions and publishes side cases in which every region is 10% colder or 10% warmer. It also notes that the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has identified a strong El Niño pattern this winter, "which could lead to large temperature variations from our forecast."

Its base case for heating degree days compared with last winter:

| Region | Change in heating degree days |
|---|---|
| Northeast | −12% (warmer) |
| Midwest | −2% |
| South | +1% |
| West | +25% (colder) |
| U.S. | 0% |

## How Many Homes Heat With Electricity

EIA's household table, based on Census Bureau survey data, shows about 57.9 million U.S. households heating mainly with electricity as of October 2026, up 1% from a year earlier. About 61.0 million heat mainly with natural gas. Electric heat is most common in the South, at about 34.9 million households.

## Don't Read This as a Fuel-Switching Guide

EIA cautions that readers "should not assume that switching to another fuel with lower energy expenditures" would lower their own costs. Each fuel's homes sit in different climates and differ in size and efficiency. A natural gas home's $640 and an electric home's $1,196 are not the same house on two fuels. The electric figure also includes lighting, appliances and electronics, which a gas home pays for on a separate electric bill.

## What This Means If You Have, or Want, Solar

- **Winter is solar's weakest season** in most of the country, with shorter days and a lower sun. A system that covers your use in summer will usually leave a gap from November to February. Check your installer's month-by-month production estimate, not just the annual total.
- **Under annual net metering,** summer surplus can carry over to winter bills. Under net billing or monthly netting, it mostly cannot. Our [export credit comparison](/posts/solar-export-credit-rates-by-utility-2026/) shows how different utilities treat surplus.
- **Fixed charges stay** whatever the season. See [fixed charges and solar](/posts/fixed-charges-and-solar-savings/).
- **Electric heating raises winter kWh,** which a solar system sized only from summer bills will undercount. Size from 12 months of usage.

For the national price outlook behind these figures, see our summary of [EIA's October 2026 forecast](/posts/eia-october-2026-electricity-price-forecast/).

## What to Do Before Winter

1. Look at last January's bill. EIA's forecast says January is the costliest month for every fuel.
2. Check whether your utility offers budget billing, which spreads winter costs across the year.
3. If you heat with electricity, find out whether you have a heat pump or resistance heat. They use very different amounts of power for the same heat.
4. If you heat with oil, compare supplier prices before your first fill. EIA forecasts the steepest rise for that fuel.

## Limitations

These are forecasts for national and regional averages, made before the winter started, and they will be revised monthly. They do not predict any household's bill. Propane figures cover only the Northeast, Midwest and South, and heating oil only a U.S. average. The next update is due November 10, 2026.

## Sources

- [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Winter Fuels Outlook 2026–27 (published October 6, 2026)](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/perspectives/2026/10-winterfuels/article.php)
- [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (released October 6, 2026)](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/)

## Frequently asked questions

### How much will it cost to heat a home with electricity this winter?

EIA forecasts average electricity spending of $1,196 from November 2026 through March 2027 for U.S. homes that heat mainly with electricity, up 4% from last winter. That covers all electricity use in those months, not only heating.

### Is natural gas heating cheaper this winter?

EIA forecasts that homes heating mainly with natural gas will spend an average of $640 on natural gas this winter, 9% less than last winter, because of lower prices. EIA warns that the figures for different fuels cover different housing populations and should not be read as the savings from switching fuels.

### Why is heating oil so much more expensive this winter?

EIA forecasts a 21% rise in heating oil spending, to $2,115, driven by a 34% increase in the price per gallon. It points to lower global distillate production, which has raised international prices and left U.S. distillate stocks low heading into winter.

### How many U.S. homes heat with electricity?

EIA's table, based on Census Bureau data, shows about 57.9 million households heating mainly with electricity as of October 2026, compared with about 61.0 million heating mainly with natural gas.


Image credit: Photo by Dan LeFebvre on [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/photos/gray-nest-thermostat-displaying-at-63-RFAHj4tI37Y?utm_source=solarexaminer&utm_medium=referral)