# EIA October 2026 Outlook: Residential Electricity Price Forecast Rises to 18.7¢ for 2027

> EIA's October 6 outlook keeps its 2026 U.S. residential electricity price forecast at 18.2¢/kWh and raises 2027 to 18.7¢. Wholesale prices in the PJM region are forecast up 41% this year.

- URL: https://solarexaminer.com/posts/eia-october-2026-electricity-price-forecast/
- Site: Solar Examiner (https://solarexaminer.com/)
- Category: News
- Published: 2026-10-07
- Last verified: 2026-10-07
- Author: Tehseen Arbab

## Key takeaways

- EIA's October 6, 2026 outlook forecasts the average U.S. residential electricity price at 18.2¢/kWh in 2026 and 18.7¢ in 2027, up from 17.3¢ in 2025.
- The 2027 figure is 0.1¢ higher than in EIA's September outlook. The 2026 figure is unchanged.
- Wholesale power prices are forecast to average $52/MWh in 2026, 11% above 2025, with the PJM region up 41%.
- These are national averages and forecasts. They are not your utility's rate and do not mean your rate changes on any date.



The U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) released its October Short-Term Energy Outlook on October 6, 2026. It keeps the 2026 forecast for the average U.S. residential electricity price at 18.2 cents per kilowatt-hour (kWh) and raises the 2027 forecast to 18.7 cents.

## The Numbers

| Year | Average residential price | Change from prior year | Cost of 1,000 kWh |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 (actual) | 16.5¢/kWh | | $165 |
| 2025 (actual) | 17.3¢/kWh | +4.8% | $173 |
| 2026 (forecast) | 18.2¢/kWh | +5.2% | $182 |
| 2027 (forecast) | 18.7¢/kWh | +2.7% | $187 |

**Formulas:** percent change = (this year − prior year) ÷ prior year. Cost of 1,000 kWh = price in cents × 1,000 ÷ 100. The percentages and dollar figures are our calculations from EIA's prices.

From 2024 to the 2027 forecast, the average price rises 2.2 cents, or 13.3% (18.7 ÷ 16.5 − 1).

## What Changed Since September

| Forecast year | September outlook | October outlook | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 18.2¢ | 18.2¢ | None |
| 2027 | 18.6¢ | 18.7¢ | +0.1¢ |

The revision is small. The direction matters more than the size: EIA expects prices to keep rising in 2027, at about half the 2026 pace.

## Wholesale Prices: PJM Stands Out

EIA forecasts wholesale electricity prices to average $52 per megawatt-hour (MWh) in 2026 across the 11 hubs it tracks, 11% higher than in 2025. It expects a slight decline to $49/MWh in 2027.

The regional picture is uneven:

- **PJM** (the grid covering much of the Mid-Atlantic and parts of the Midwest): wholesale prices forecast up 41% from 2025, the largest increase of any region.
- **Northwest (Mid-Columbia):** down 23% from 2025, the largest decline.
- **PJM, New England and New York:** the three highest-priced regions this year. EIA expects declines in 2027, ranging from 7% in PJM to 14% in New York.

Wholesale prices are one part of a bill. EIA notes that residential prices also include "transmission and distribution upgrades, capacity market auction prices in some regions, among other expenses." That is why a forecast drop in wholesale prices in 2027 sits alongside a forecast rise in residential prices.

The PJM figure lines up with what state data already show. In EIA's July 2026 figures, residential prices were up more than 10% from a year earlier in Maryland, Ohio, Illinois, Delaware, Pennsylvania and Virginia, all states served wholly or partly by PJM. New Jersey, also in PJM, was down 0.5%, so the pattern is not uniform. See our [state-by-state price comparison](/posts/electricity-prices-by-state-july-2026/).

## Demand

- Total U.S. electricity consumption in the third quarter of 2026 was 4% higher than a year earlier, EIA says. Residential use rose 6% and commercial use 5%.
- For 2027, EIA forecasts commercial demand, which includes data centers, to grow 2.8% and industrial demand 2.7%. It expects residential consumption to stay "mostly unchanged from 2026 levels."

## Solar

EIA forecasts solar's share of U.S. electricity generation rising from 8% in 2026 to 9% in 2027. Its capacity table shows solar at 152 gigawatts (GW) in 2025, 182 GW in 2026 and 223 GW in 2027. By our math that is growth of about 20% in 2026 and 23% in 2027. We did not confirm whether that table includes small rooftop systems.

## Natural Gas

EIA forecasts the Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average $3.16 per million British thermal units in 2027, 9% lower than in 2026. Gas is a major fuel for power plants, so lower gas prices tend to hold down the fuel part of electric bills where utilities pass fuel costs through.

## Winter Heating

EIA expects households that heat with natural gas or propane to spend less on those fuels than last winter. It expects homes that heat with electricity to face slightly higher costs. We could not read EIA's detailed winter table, so we are not giving dollar figures.

## What This Means for Homeowners

- **It is a national average.** State averages in July 2026 ranged from 12.72¢ in Louisiana to 48.00¢ in Hawaii.
- **It is a forecast.** EIA revises it every month.
- **For solar:** a higher retail rate raises the value of each kWh you produce and use at home. What you earn for exported power depends on your utility's [export credit](/posts/solar-export-credit-rates-by-utility-2026/), which does not automatically rise with retail rates.
- **For a solar quote:** do not accept a savings estimate built on a rate escalator much above what this outlook shows without asking why. EIA's forecast is +5.2% for 2026 and +2.7% for 2027 nationally. Your utility may differ.

Check your own state's approved and pending changes in our [rates by state](/rates-by-state/) guides.

## Limitations

This article reports EIA's forecast as published on October 6, 2026. Prices are rounded to one decimal by EIA, so our percentage calculations carry rounding error. The next outlook is scheduled for November 10, 2026.

## Sources

- [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook: Electricity, Coal, and Renewables (released October 6, 2026)](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/report/elec_coal_renew.php)
- [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook (released October 6, 2026)](https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/)
- [U.S. Energy Information Administration, Electric Power Monthly, Table 5.6.A (July 2026 data)](https://www.eia.gov/electricity/monthly/epm_table_grapher.php?t=epmt_5_6_a)

## Frequently asked questions

### What is EIA's forecast for residential electricity prices in 2026 and 2027?

In its October 6, 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts a U.S. average of 18.2 cents per kWh in 2026 and 18.7 cents in 2027. The 2025 average was 17.3 cents and the 2024 average was 16.5 cents.

### Did the forecast change from September?

Slightly. The 2026 forecast stayed at 18.2 cents per kWh. The 2027 forecast moved from 18.6 cents in the September outlook to 18.7 cents in October.

### Why are electricity prices rising?

EIA says residential prices include costs such as transmission and distribution upgrades and, in some regions, capacity market auction prices. It also forecasts higher wholesale prices in 2026, led by a 41% increase in the PJM region.

### Will my electric bill go up by the same amount?

Not necessarily. The forecast is a national average of what residential customers pay. Your bill depends on your utility, your state's regulators, your rate plan and how much power you use.


Image credit: Photo by Ernest Brillo on [Unsplash](https://unsplash.com/photos/electric-cable-wire-during-golden-hour-9_vReDaom2Q?utm_source=solarexaminer&utm_medium=referral)